Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4149
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4149 · BNA → AUS
departs 8:00 AM CT · arrives 10:10 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 5%
Mon 10/5 9%
Fri 10/9 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±0 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −13 pts in 24h
−13 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,033 ft, 2.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day
↑
AUS is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 20% of the time recently
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 1.69 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.