Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4154
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 4154 · BUF → MDW
departs 7:35 AM ET · arrives 8:15 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 11%
Mon 10/5 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 1,200 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at BUF that day
↑
MDW is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
7am departures from BUF are usually not late
Weather at each end
BUF (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.28 in
MDW (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip 1.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.