WN 4161 · TPA → DCA

departs 10:06 AM ET · arrives 12:32 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±0 pts −15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.57 in

DCA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4161 · TPA → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?