Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4183
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4183 · HOU → MCO
departs 7:40 AM CT · arrives 11:05 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 2%
Wed 9/30 3%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 6%
Sun 10/4 4%
Mon 10/5 5%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±2 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
HOU is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
7am departures from HOU are usually not late
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.