Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4183 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

WN 4183 · HOU → MCO

departs 7:40 AM CT · arrives 11:05 AM ET

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 64h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±3 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at HOU that day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 7am departures from HOU are usually not late

Weather at each end

HOU (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.33 in

MCO (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4183 · HOU → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?