Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 418
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 418 · SMF → BOI
departs 1:20 PM PT · arrives 3:45 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 23%
Sat 10/3 8%
Mon 10/5 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOI more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at BOI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to BOI?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
1pm departures from SMF are often late
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOI
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
BOI (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.