Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4191
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4191 · SAN → STS
departs 9:45 PM PT · arrives 11:35 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 33%
Mon 10/5 19%
Fri 10/9 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at STS more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±0 pts
+28 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
30%
Cancelled
12%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +28 pts in 24h
+28 pts
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +19 pts in 24h
+19 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at STS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +22 pts in 24h
+22 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
How late will it get to STS?
On time or early
39%
15–30 min late
34%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
12%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
This flight has been late 36% of the time recently
↓
Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi forecast at STS that day
↓
STS usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
STS (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.25 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.