Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4195
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4195 · DAL → DCA
departs 1:35 PM CT · arrives 5:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Sun 10/4 28%
Mon 10/5 26%
Fri 10/9 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
60%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
60%
Leave 15+ late
61%
Arrive 1h+ late
24%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 60% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 61% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
61%
Yes 61%
No 39%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
39%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
14%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 1.25 mi, 1.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DAL that day
↑
DAL is prone to delays
↑
1pm departures from DAL are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip 3.06 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.