Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4211
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 4211 · MDW → PIT
departs 6:50 PM CT · arrives 9:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 31%
Sat 10/3 15%
Sun 10/4 25%
Mon 10/5 16%
Wed 10/7 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
65%
Arrive 1h+ late
18%
Cancelled
6%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 58% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 64% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
65%
Yes 65%
No 35%
Arrive at PIT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
How late will it get to PIT?
On time or early
39%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
6%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 967 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
6pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
PIT usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip 1.18 in
PIT (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.