Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4221
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
WN 4221 · MDW → RDU
departs 6:55 PM CT · arrives 9:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 37%
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 28%
Wed 10/7 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
66%
chance · ±2 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
66%
Leave 15+ late
60%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 64% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
66%
Yes 66%
No 34%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 60% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
32%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
28%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 967 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
6pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip 0.90 in
RDU (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.