Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4227
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4227 · SFO → AUS
departs 10:10 AM PT · arrives 3:45 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 42%
Mon 10/5 35%
Fri 10/9 39%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
64%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
64%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 64% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
35%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1.1 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day
↑
10am departures from SFO are often late
↑
This flight has been late 37% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 1.69 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.