Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4227
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 4227 · SFO → AUS
departs 10:30 AM PT · arrives 4:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 50%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 30%
Wed 10/7 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
36%
chance · ±2 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
36%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10am departures from SFO are often late
↑
This flight has been late 37% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.22 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.