Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4227
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 4227 · SFO → AUS
departs 10:10 AM PT · arrives 3:45 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 38%
Mon 10/5 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
47%
chance · ±0 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
47%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 46% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10am departures from SFO are often late
↑
This flight has been late 37% of the time recently
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at SFO that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 0.42 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.