Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4264
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 4264 · FLL → DEN
departs 8:50 AM ET · arrives 11:00 AM MT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 19h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 27%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 12%
Mon 10/5 9%
Tue 10/6 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±5 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave FLL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at FLL that day
↑
This flight has been late 22% of the time recently
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
FLL (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.72 in
DEN (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.