Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4281
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
WN 4281 · MKE → BWI
departs 6:45 PM CT · arrives 9:40 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 25%
Sun 10/4 22%
Mon 10/5 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave MKE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at MKE that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
MKE usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MKE (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 1.15 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.