Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4289 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Today

WN 4289 · BNA → MCI

departs 8:15 AM CT · arrives 9:55 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MCI?

On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.7 in of rain forecast at MCI that day

↑ This flight has been late 19% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into MCI at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

MCI (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.63 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4289 · BNA → MCI

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCI?