Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4402
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 4402 · MCO → AUS
departs 6:40 PM ET · arrives 8:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 58%
Sun 10/4 34%
Mon 10/5 23%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
52%
chance · ±1 pts
−22 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
52%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed −22 pts in 24h
−22 pts
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed −19 pts in 24h
−19 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,233 ft, 2.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day
↑
6pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 1.69 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.