Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4407
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
WN 4407 · MDW → MCI
departs 2:10 PM CT · arrives 3:35 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 25%
Sat 10/3 14%
Sun 10/4 16%
Mon 10/5 17%
Tue 10/6 13%
Wed 10/7 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±2 pts
−14 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −14 pts in 24h
−14 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at MCI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCI?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 1.0 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at MCI that day
↑
2pm departures from MDW are often late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.69 in
MCI (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.63 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.