Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4431
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
WN 4431 · BNA → RDU
departs 8:35 PM CT · arrives 11:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 39%
Sat 10/3 32%
Sun 10/4 22%
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 23%
Wed 10/7 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 38% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
RDU (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.