Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4444
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 4444 · DAL → STL
departs 8:10 PM CT · arrives 9:55 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 40%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 58%
Sat 10/3 3%
Mon 10/5 26%
Tue 10/6 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
71%
chance · ±10 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
71%
Leave 15+ late
69%
Arrive 1h+ late
25%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
71%
Yes 71%
No 29%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
69%
Yes 69%
No 31%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
28%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 1.9 in of rain forecast at DAL that day
↑
Cloud base down to 1,267 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at STL that day
↑
8pm departures from DAL are often late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 1.86 in
STL (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 1,267 ft Visibility 3.33333 mi Precip 0.32 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.