Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4444 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

WN 4444 · DAL → STL

departs 8:10 PM CT · arrives 9:55 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, 1.2 in of rain forecast at DAL that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 8pm departures from DAL are often late

↓ DAL is quiet at that time

↓ STL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DAL (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility3 mi Precip1.24 in

STL (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.46 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4444 · DAL → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?