Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4479
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 4479 · DCA → MDW
departs 3:35 PM ET · arrives 4:45 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 39%
Sat 10/3 12%
Sun 10/4 33%
Mon 10/5 17%
Wed 10/7 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±0 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 1.0 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
3pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip 1.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.