Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4485
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4485 · RNO → SAN
departs 5:15 PM PT · arrives 6:55 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 35%
Mon 10/5 28%
Fri 10/9 40%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 47% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO
Weather at each end
RNO (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.