Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4493
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 4493 · MCO → HOU
departs 7:35 PM ET · arrives 9:05 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 36%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 52%
Sat 10/3 30%
Sun 10/4 32%
Mon 10/5 26%
Tue 10/6 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
60%
chance · ±0 pts
+19 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
60%
Leave 15+ late
63%
Arrive 1h+ late
22%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +19 pts in 24h
+19 pts
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed +20 pts in 24h
+20 pts
63%
Yes 63%
No 37%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
38%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
7pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.11 in
HOU (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.21 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.