Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4493
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 4493 · MCO → HOU
departs 7:40 PM ET · arrives 9:05 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 58%
Fri 10/2 51%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 32%
Mon 10/5 26%
Tue 10/6 20%
Wed 10/7 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
64%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
64%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
5%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed – in 24h
–
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
34%
15–30 min late
31%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
0.8 in of rain forecast at HOU that day
↑
7pm departures from MCO are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.17 in
HOU (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.82 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.