Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4506
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4506 · LAS → MDW
departs 11:20 AM PT · arrives 4:50 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 22%
Mon 10/5 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
11am departures from LAS are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.92 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.