Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4506 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

WN 4506 · LAS → MDW

departs 11:20 AM PT · arrives 4:50 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 65h before departure

Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±2 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MDW?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 11am departures from LAS are often late

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ MDW usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MDW (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling567 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.49 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4506 · LAS → MDW

Odds over time

How late will it get to MDW?