Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4513
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4513 · SJC → SAN
departs 7:00 PM PT · arrives 8:25 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 50%
Mon 10/5 37%
Fri 10/9 48%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
49%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
49%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
49%
Yes 49%
No 51%
Leave SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 50% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SJC that day
↓
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at SAN that day
Weather at each end
SJC (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.