Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4526
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4526 · LAS → SAT
departs 7:25 PM PT · arrives 12:10 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 41%
Mon 10/5 25%
Fri 10/9 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±3 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 557 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi, 3.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SAT that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from LAS are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
SAT (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 540 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 3.40 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.