Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4526
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 4526 · LAS → SAT
departs 7:50 PM PT · arrives 12:35 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
This flight has been late 32% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAT (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.