Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4526
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 4526 · LAS → SAT
departs 7:25 PM PT · arrives 12:10 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Sun 10/4 33%
Mon 10/5 24%
Fri 10/9 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±2 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at SAT that day
↑
7pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAT (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.25 mi Precip 0.67 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.