Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4570
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 4570 · LGA → DAL
departs 12:35 PM ET · arrives 3:10 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 42%
Sat 10/3 14%
Sun 10/4 19%
Mon 10/5 19%
Tue 10/6 17%
Wed 10/7 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 1.25 mi, 1.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DAL that day
↑
DAL is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into DAL at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DAL (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip 3.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.