Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4571
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4571 · BNA → CLE
departs 10:00 AM CT · arrives 12:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 15%
Mon 10/5 9%
Fri 10/9 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at CLE more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±0 pts
−19 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CLE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −19 pts in 24h
−19 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −26 pts in 24h
−26 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at CLE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CLE?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 18% of the time recently
↑
Other factors
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at CLE
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
CLE (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.