Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4575
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 4575 · BNA → MIA
departs 7:15 PM CT · arrives 10:40 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 41%
Sat 10/3 26%
Mon 10/5 28%
Tue 10/6 29%
Wed 10/7 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±0 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
29%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
MIA (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 1.25 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.