Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 458
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
WN 458 · MCI → DCA
departs 6:30 PM CT · arrives 9:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 50%
Mon 10/5 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at MCI that day
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
6pm departures from MCI are often late
↓
MCI usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
MCI (origin)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.60 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.