Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4592
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 4592 · MDW → ATL
departs 2:40 PM CT · arrives 5:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 34%
Sat 10/3 13%
Sun 10/4 44%
Mon 10/5 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
45%
chance · ±1 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
45%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at ATL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ATL?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 1.0 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
2pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
Arrivals into ATL at that hour are often late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at ATL that day
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip 1.18 in
ATL (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.