Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4692
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4692 · BWI → MSY
departs 9:25 AM ET · arrives 11:05 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 15%
Mon 10/5 16%
Fri 10/9 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
BWI is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 19% of the time recently
↑
BWI is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
MSY (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.