Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 470
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
WN 470 · CHS → BWI
departs 4:10 PM ET · arrives 5:45 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 30%
Sun 10/4 24%
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 31%
Wed 10/7 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave CHS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi forecast at CHS that day
Weather at each end
CHS (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.25 mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.