Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4720
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4720 · AUS → MCO
departs 3:30 PM CT · arrives 7:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 23%
Sun 10/4 23%
Mon 10/5 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
52%
chance · ±5 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
52%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 1.0 in of rain forecast at AUS that day
↑
3pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 3.66667 mi Precip 1.00 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.