Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4720 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

WN 4720 · AUS → MCO

departs 3:30 PM CT · arrives 7:25 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 56h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, 1.2 in of rain forecast at AUS that day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↑ 3pm departures from AUS are often late

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ MCO usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip1.18 in

MCO (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling3,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.17 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4720 · AUS → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?