Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4721
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4721 · MCO → IND
departs 1:05 PM ET · arrives 3:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 6%
Wed 9/30 6%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 17%
Sat 10/3 12%
Sun 10/4 5%
Mon 10/5 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 18% of the time recently
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
IND usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
IND (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.