Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4721
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 4721 · MCO → IND
departs 11:15 AM ET · arrives 1:40 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Fri 10/2 24%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 5%
Mon 10/5 15%
Tue 10/6 6%
Wed 10/7 5%
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±3 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
11am departures from MCO are often late
↑
This flight has been late 18% of the time recently
↓
Arrivals into IND at that hour are usually not late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.25 in
IND (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.