Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4736
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
WN 4736 · BWI → MHT
departs 4:50 PM ET · arrives 6:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 36%
Sun 10/4 23%
Mon 10/5 13%
Tue 10/6 9%
Wed 10/7 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at MHT more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MHT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at MHT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MHT?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
4pm departures from BWI are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
MHT usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
MHT (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.