WN 4797 · LGA → BNA

departs 4:36 PM ET · arrives 5:51 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BNA (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4797 · LGA → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?