Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4800
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4800 · HOU → MAF
departs 10:40 PM CT · arrives 12:10 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 41%
Mon 10/5 30%
Fri 10/9 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at MAF more than 15 minutes late?
55%
chance · ±0 pts
+16 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
55%
Leave 15+ late
58%
Arrive 1h+ late
30%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MAF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +24 pts in 24h
+24 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Arrive at MAF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +22 pts in 24h
+22 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MAF?
On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
26%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from HOU are often late
↑
Gusts to 27 kt, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at HOU that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.73 in
MAF (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.