Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4800
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 4800 · HOU → MAF
departs 10:40 PM CT · arrives 12:10 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 34%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 30%
Fri 10/9 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at MAF more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.1d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MAF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at MAF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MAF?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from HOU are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MAF
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.13 in
MAF (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.