Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4800
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 4800 · HOU → MAF
departs 9:55 PM CT · arrives 11:25 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 50%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 37%
Mon 10/5 30%
Tue 10/6 23%
Wed 10/7 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at MAF more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±2 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MAF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at MAF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MAF?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at HOU that day
↑
9pm departures from HOU are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
HOU usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.26 in
MAF (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.