Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4800
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 4800 · HOU → MAF
departs 10:40 PM CT · arrives 12:10 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 12h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 33%
Sun 10/4 37%
Mon 10/5 30%
Wed 10/7 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at MAF more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.1d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MAF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at MAF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MAF?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from HOU are often late
↑
Visibility down to 1.25 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at HOU that day
↑
Gusts to 26 kt forecast at MAF that day
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip 0.61 in
MAF (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.