Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4807
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
WN 4807 · SAN → MCI
departs 2:35 PM PT · arrives 7:50 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 46%
Sat 10/3 30%
Sun 10/4 35%
Mon 10/5 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±2 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at MCI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCI?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at MCI that day
↑
2pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
This flight has been late 47% of the time recently
↓
MCI usually runs smoothly
↓
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at SAN that day
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
MCI (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.67 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.