Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4812
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
WN 4812 · STL → CMH
departs 8:35 PM CT · arrives 11:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 37%
Sat 10/3 26%
Mon 10/5 23%
Tue 10/6 21%
Wed 10/7 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
60%
chance · ±0 pts
+12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
60%
Leave 15+ late
64%
Arrive 1h+ late
27%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Arrive at CMH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CMH?
On time or early
39%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
23%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 25 kt forecast at STL that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 2,857 ft Visibility 5.71429 mi Precip 0.13 in
CMH (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.